Cautiously hopeful

A good day for democracy across the water.  The Brits, they do love an under-dog and are happy to see hubris chastised. I was very bitter and twisted about Brexit ,which struck me as an example of the folly of the democratic process. Last year, the people of the UK were given a referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave. They got that, rare for them, access to direct democracy because of an election promise made by the British Prime Minister to bring the right-wing of the Conservative party back into line and to undermine the rise and rise of UKIP the UK Independence Party. That seemed like shoo-in but turned into a shit-storm when the electorate -  widely ignorant of the economic or social effects of being in or out of the EU - voted by a narrow majority to leave. Brexit is divisive and polarising because nearly half the voted wanted to remain but now have to leave because their parents and grandparents remember WWII . . . and Waterloo . . . and Blenheim . . . and Agincourt.

Old fashioned socialists believe in tempering ambition and profit with some care for the dispossesed. For them the result of the election, which Labour lost, had them capering about the streets with undisguised glee: Anywhere but Westminster - Jonathan Pie.  Pie chortles "This is The End of New Labour" because Jeremy Corbyn the current Labour leader is the sort of old fashioned, scruffy, beardy, tree-hugging, anti-war socialist that went out of fashion in the 1980s as the patrimony of the country - the housing, the transport infrastructure, the telecoms were sold to the highest bidder in an effort to make things more efficient. First by the Conservatives on a tide of patriotic jingoism durimg and after the Falklands War and then by the 'New' Labour Party.led by Tony 'Weasel' Blair which moved firmly to the Centre and carried on the same careless populism which saw the haves have more and the have-nots get nothing-at-all.  All my adult life the two main political parties fought for the centre because [normal Gaussian bell-curve distribution] that held the most people. In short order you couldn't tell the difference between Left and Right because they all bought into the politics of market capitalism: low taxes . . . to incentivise; low benefits and welfare . . . to incentivise. This would all work IF there were enormous amounts of feather-bedding and sinecures in the public service [which there probably was] ANDIF uneducated young people could find a job if they cycled far enough from home. Margaret Thatcher, to whom Theresa May is too often compared, famously said "There is no such thing as society" but that soundbyte needs to be put into context ro understand her intent.  It is too easy to hear those words quoted in the pub and go first quiet, then angry and then shouty. Heck, if it was easy to solve the manifold problems of a post-industrial society, then we-the-people or our elected representatives would have sorted them.

The election delivered an unexpected change in the balance of power: far from giving the Conservatives a larger share of parliamentary seats so that Theresa May has a stronger mandate for negotiating Brexit, they are now 8 seats short of a majority. A disastrous result for the Tories and Theresa May, personally, not to mention 33 Tory MPs who thought they had a comfy billet until 2021 and now have to get in the limousines to find a job. But it is a good day for diversity. There is now a strong, stable, loyal opposition who will put a stop to the gallop of a Hard Brexit and temper the shameful disparagement of them foreign johnnies by little englanders. It is a pity that the demographics expose the fissures in the no-such-thing-as-society: old vs young; urban vs suburban (there is, to the nearest whole %,  no rural population left in England); white vs others; haves vs dispossessed.  This is why Labour and Corbyn could not - dare not - campaign to roll back the Brexit referendum fiasco because their support came from two almost irreconcilable constituencies: educated youth who are overwhelmingly pro-Europe and the post-industrial ghettos of London, the North and the Midlands who have no clear current or future role and so look back to a rosy fantasy past of cream cake, strong tea, the Blitz and Dunkirk.

Let's look at the data which expose a real and present inequity in the antiquated system of voting from which the UK seems unable to progress. Here are the numbers

Party	Seats	NetGain	Pop%	Seat%
Con	318	-13	42.5	48.9
Lab	262	32	40.0	40.3
SNP	35	-19	3.0	5.4
LibDem	12	3	7.4	1.8
DUP	10	2	0.9	1.5
SinnFein	7	3	0.7	1.1
Plaid Cymru	4	1	0.5	0.6
Green	1	0	1.6	0.2
Ind	1	-4	0.5	0.2
UUP	0	-2	0.3	0.0
SDLP	0	-3	0.3	0.0
UKIP	0	0	1.8	0.0
Other	0	0	0.5	0.0
Total	650

The anomalies thrown up by first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all electoral system means that the largest party tends to get far more seats than the popular vote would give them (compare Pop % and Seat % for Labour and Conservative: by rights the seats should be C 276 vs L 262. And the LibDems should have nearer 50 seats than 12. The only hope minority interests and alternative parties have is when they are geographically constrained: Scottish Nationist Party SNP gets almost 2x the seats they deserve, while Plaid Cymru in Wales and Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein in Norhern Ireland all punch above their weight.  Half a million people voted Green, that 'should' be enough to secure 10 seats but they only retained Brighton Pavillion. UKIP likewise should have won 12 seats but got nothing. Check out your auntie's constituency with the Guardian. Wider view of the result with Vox. In Ireland we have multi-seat constituencies so a lot more than 2 main parties and interests get to secure representation. This is not great for government either because too many woowah single interest people get elected and have to be squared - Free the Gays; Free Water; Free Univesity; Free treatment for CF; Free fish on Fridays; Freedonia!