Next Pres 2025

I was rabbiting on about the betting on the next Pope and then remembered that Paddy Power is usually running a book on the next President of Ireland. Michael D. Higgins swore up and down that he was only in it for the one term when we elected him in 2011. But he couldn't surrender the trappings of bling in 2018 and sojourned another 7 years in the Áras. He has to go now before November 2025. And a very wide field is

9/4 Mairead McGuinness [FG former EU Commissioner] Seen [R] eclipsing a star.

4/1 Frances Black [Singer-Senator]

6/1 Heather Humphreys [FG]

8/1 Seán Kelly [presumably the FG MEP, not Sean "fada" Kelly the cyclist from the Déise??]

8/1 Catherine Connolly [Ind TD WAS Leas-Cheann Comhairle ]

10/1 Bertie Ahern [FF]; Michael McDowell [PD] ; Frances Fitzgerald [FG]; Fergus Finlay [Lab. Barnardos]

16/1 Emily O'Reilly; Micheál "Taoiseach" Martin; Tommy Tiernan; Barry Andrews

20/1 Mary Lou McDonald

25/1 Mark Daly; Roisin Shortall; Miriam O'Callaghan; Jarlath Burns

33/1 Catherine Murphy; Joe Brolly; Holly Cairns; Cynthia Ni Mhurchu; John Finucane; Lynn Ruane

40/1 Luke Ming Flanagan; Enda Kenny; Peter Casey

50/1 Aengus O Snodaigh; Gerard Craughwell; Gerry Adams; Ruairi Quinn

66/1 Linda Martin; Sharon Keogan; Eamon O'Cuiv; Colm O'Gorman

80/1 Mary Davis; Olivia O'Leary

100/1 Leo Varadkar; Gareth Sheridan; Regina Doherty; David Norris; Kevin Sharkey; Pat Cox; Eamon Ryan; Ivana Bacik; Sean Gallagher; Philip Nolan

200/1 Tony Holohan; Richard Bruton; Dana Rosemary Scallon; Niall Boylan

500/1 Gemma O'Doherty; Damien Duff; Cecelia Ahern; Ryan Tubridy; Joe Duffy; Roy Keane; Shane Ross; Nina Carberry; Panti Bliss

Bookmakers are not making moral or ethical judgments in assigning odds but they are making value [max profit while min risk] judgments. But you have to ask why, of all the people in all the world, they are making public their assessment that nobody likes broadcasters Ryan Tubridy and Joe Duffy. Is it just Ukraienvy that gets stand-up comedian Tommy Tiernan shorter odds [16/1] than MaryLou "I am always serious" McDonald [20/1]. I captured these odds on 28 Apr 25. I'll try to remember to take another scrape in a month's time or at the end of June for comparison. As with polls and popes, the dynamics of probability / odds is more informative than a single snapshot.