Paddy Pope

Last week was Papa Francisco week, where we got far too much information about Santa Maria Maggiore and the seating of heads of state [in french, the language of diplomacy, so United States was seated closer to Ethiopia than United Kingdom]. This week it's Conclave time! And last week, I learned from MeFi that, in the USA, it is impossible to have a flutter on who will be the next pope. In some states it is just plain plum illegal, while in others, bookmakers won't play the game - perhaps worried about protest riots?

My contribution to the MeFi convo was to "ooooo data!" nip over to PaddyPower and scrape the current odds off their website. My heirs are grateful that I only bet on The Dogs, and then only when I am at the track on a Works Night Out. And it must be ten years since I last bought a Lotto ticket. Nevertheless, bookmaking is interesting because someone is devoting time, experience and expertise to setting  the odds. These odds are dynamic over time and their fluctuations are based on information; even if that may not be strictly evidence.  The Pope was buried on Saturday, and pretty much all the cardinal candidates for the job are gathered in Rome and showing form or making deals. When I first looked, before the funeral, I made a cut-off at >33to1 ["low" below] which put 22 (!) cardinals in the frame:

Candidate cardinale	24Apr25	Funeral	28Apr25
Pietro Parolin		2/1	2/1	2/1
Luis Antonio Tagle	3/1	11/4	10/3
Peter Turkson		6/1	5/1	5/1
Matteo Zuppi		7/1	7/1	7/1
Robert Sarah		9/1	11/2	5/1
Pierbattista Pizzaballa	9/1	15/2	11/1
Peter Erdo		11/1	11/2	9/1
Lazarus You Heung-sik 	low	9/1	9/1
Kevin Farrell		17/1	17/1	22/1
Cristobal Lopez Romero	17/1	17/1	17/1
Giovanni Battista 	low	low	17/1
Jean-Marc Aveline	20/1	20/1	20/1
Fridolin Besungu	22/1	22/1	33/1
Raymond Leo Burke	22/1	22/1	33/1
Mario Grech		25/1	22/1	40/1
Angelo Scola		25/1	25/1	50/1
Claudio Gugerotti 	low	25/1	25/1
Vincent Nichols		25/1	40/1	40/1
Francis Arinze		30/1	30/1	40/1
Wim Eijk		30/1	30/1	40/1
Mark Ouellet		33/1	50/1	50/1
Timothy Dolan		33/1	33/1	33/1
Angelo Bagnasco		33/1	33/1	33/1
Leonardo Steiner	33/1	60/1	60/1
Mykola Bychkow		33/1	33/1	33/1

what interests to me is that some rank outsiders - notably Lazarus You Heung-sik from South Career Korea - are now seemingly in the running. Meanwhile the chances of others have tumbled. What can Grech or Scola said or done to have nixxed them from the papal throne . . . this time round?